Ahead of their first Champions League game, Benfica have seen a managerial change with Bruno Lage taking the helm once again. The trip to Crvena Zvezda will be a stern test for the Portuguese side, but they have a shot at competing even for the top 8 in the table—achieving that will require not dropping points against lesser opponents.
On the domestic front, Crvena Zvezda face little competition (six wins and one draw), so it’s worth looking at their qualification matches against Bodø/Glimt (3:2 on aggregate) ahead of the League Stage. There, they faltered away with a 1:2 loss (10-17 on shots and 0.94-1.48 xG) but managed to recover at home with a 2:0 victory. Notably, in the previous Champions League, the Serbian side failed to win any of their six group stage matches (five losses and one draw), conceding a total of 15 goals. Even at home, they allowed at least two goals in all three matches.
Benfica’s start to the national championship was shaky, but since then they have found form, going four matches without defeat (three wins and one draw). This past weekend, they thrashed Santa Clara (4:1). In that match, Benfica racked up 3.41 xG from 15 shots, indicating they are in excellent shape leading into the Champions League. It's worth noting that Benfica have successfully integrated new signings ahead of the European competitions: for instance, Kerem Aktürkoğlu scored in his first match for the club last game. Currently, only reserve midfielder Fredrik Aursnes is unavailable for Benfica, otherwise, the team is fully prepared for the start of the Champions League.
The European qualification matches have shown that Crvena Zvezda often falter at the first hint of serious competition. Benfica, on the other hand, know how to secure points against such opponents who simply lack the necessary class.
